The Sylvan Afghanistan debate considered the following motion:
This house believes that the decision to leave Afghanistan was a mistake.
The debate took place on Monday, 6th September. Peter Hulme-Cross proposed the motion and Mike Douse opposed it.
The proposition supporting the view that leaving Afghanistan was a mistake
The proposer discussed the history of Western interventions in Afghanistan. He pointed out that the US should have left after taking out al Qaeda, making a deal with the Taliban. However, an Afghan-led government, new constitution, and improvements in areas such as infrastructure and education did result. Women benefitted significantly and an entire generation grew up without Taliban repression. President Biden claimed he had either to increase troops or withdraw, though provided no evidence. Effectively the US had enough and went home, in a betrayal of Afghans. Abandoning the country to a group of thugs means women are possessions, more refugees and minorities are a target.
Leaving a small force of 2,500 could have sustained the security situation, compared to 30,000 in South Korea since 1950. Iran faces less pressure as a result, and NATO looks weak. The US will not stop aggression such as Russia in Ukraine and China in Taiwan. Pakistan also wins, because India had invested in Afghanistan. Terrorists such as ISIS-K have returned. The US should have sustained their presence.
The opposition against the motion
The opposer brought up the proposer’s point that the US should have cut a deal with the Taliban to minimise losses. But Western occupation of developing countries is horrible. Improvements in conditions were only on the surface, and not for the poor. Women still had no rights, and husbands own the children. Villagers hate western influence. The Taliban are ignorant and brutal but embody the culture of Afghanistan. After 16 years the decision to leave took allies unaware. Major drug and prostitution problems hampered the occupation.
All of this laid bare the delusion that military might could create a democracy. Tony Blair had a neo-imperial fantasy and liked George Bush, but even he admits you can’t create democracy. A predictable defeat with no redeeming achievements, which costed $2.7 trillion (excluding UK costs).
Floor speeches from the audience of the Afghanistan debate
Floor speakers also referred to the history of Afghanistan. It will take many generations to change the culture, for example female suffrage in the West. A brain drain from urban Kabul won’t help. A number of speakers pointed out that the debate does not centre on decision to invade or the chaotic withdrawal. High levels of corruption meant a different kind of democracy there. We should view any investments to date as sunk costs – the best strategy when in a casino is to get out!
Several speakers brought up Charlie Wilson’s war in the 1990s where the US armed the mujahedeen fighters. Some argued it inhuman to leave now and expose the people to the Taliban. The US system caused the worst of the corruption – ‘the fish rots from the head downward’. Some argued we should stick by our commitment to the Afghan people. But leaving now projects weakness: this was not a 20 year but a 50 year project.
The opposer’s rebuttal in the Afghanistan debate
In rebuttal, the opposer referred to a number of points from the floor speeches. Corruption and ghost soldiers – we could sustain an everlasting kleptocracy for 50 years, but few benefits. 96% of Afghans favour Sharia law. They don’t like interference and we can’t impose the American dream. We should have left 18 years ago, and finally this has been rectified.
The proposer’s closing speech
In closing, the proposer reiterated that western-style democracy cannot be created by military intervention. The new Afghan regime was not Western, it was a Muslim state. Corruption was a way of life there anyway. The US wanted al Qaeda never to return, a commitment which they have reneged and betrayed. The Taliban will rule by fear and violence. While it was wrong to go in, it is now morally wrong to leave, and utterly shameful. Al Qaeda will re-establish itself and the West will feel the effects.
Result: in the final vote, the Afghanistan debate motion carried
The Sylvans concluded through the Afghanistan debate that leaving the country was a mistake.
See information on other Sylvan debates here.